Sweet Swap flashed the talent we saw in this maiden score with his win down the hill at Santa Anita on September 28.
Eight days until Christmas, your birthday and your anniversary all rolled into the Breeders’ Cup and we see a competitive final six races on Thursday’s card headlined by $62,500 allowance optional claimers rolling the 6 ½-furlongs down the hillside turf course.
One of just a pair of 3-year-old in the field of eight, Sweet Swap is the 5-to-2 morning line favorite against his elders off an impressive win against first-level allowance foes over this layout on September 28. After breaking his maiden in track record time last summer at Del Mar, the Candy Ride colt had disappointed with a pair of fifth-place finishes before skimming the rail and drawing away nicely in his last.
Having finished in the exacta in his last four with a pair of wins, Smokey Lonesome is the 3-to-1 second choice off a runner-up effort under these same conditions on September 30. The 6-year-old gelded son of Teton Forest moves back to turf terror Joe Talamo, who’s been aboard for his last five wins including again under these same conditions last January.
With speedsters breaking from the inside and outside to engage Sweet Swap early, things may set up for 5-to-1 shot Royal F J to win from off the pace. Looking for consecutive wins after sandwiching 11 defeats between a pair of scores over this layout, the 5-year-old gelded son of Royal Academy has won just 3-of-35 career starts while settling for runner-up honors ten times.
We’re off to the races!
Pick 4 -
Leg 1 – Race 5 (3,5,6,7,8) – Five deep with bottom-level female sprinters using No. 3 Real Dream, No. 5 Memo to Kathy, No. 6 Warren’s Passion, No. 7 Ebo’s Love and No. 8 Moon Stone Madness.
Leg 2 – Race 6 (1,5,6,8,9,11) – More of the basement variety with six maiden claimers on the main track using No. 1 Jay’s Firetruck, No. 5 Thirteen Black, No. 6 Surely Swift, No. 8 He Makes It Rain, No. 9 Swiss Emperor and No. 11 Become the Wind.
Leg 3 – Race 7 (4,5,6) – Use the trio discussed above with No. 4 Royal F J, No. 5 Smokey Lonesome and No. 6 Sweet Swap.
Leg 4 – Race 8 (2,4,7,10) – After breaking from the rail in her debut and being hopelessly last, No. 7 My Moment Too ran on decent enough to be beaten by just four lengths at Del Mar this summer. Corey Nakatani sees fit to ride back for low-percentage trainer George P. and we’ll look positively at a pair of five-furlong a.m. spins over this main track.
Spread with No. 2 Raisin’ Cain, No. 4 R Doubleday and No. 10 Ya Wanna Hug.
Recap – (3,5,6,7,8) w (1,5,6,8,9,11) w (4,5,6) w (2,4,7,10) – Total cost of ticket = $180
Sunday’s Result – (-$180)
Total for current Santa Anita meet – (+$1,211.45)
Total from 12/26/10 – 9/5/12 – (-$2,966.60)
Pick 5 –
Leg 1 – Race 1 (4,5,6) – A pair of odds-on favorite in short fields to start the day, beginning with No. 4 Stanwyck, who has been the beaten favorite in her last two and will try to win from off the pace over this main track.
We’ll try to beat her with another pair trying dirt for the first time with No. 5 Kelsa and No. 6 Miss Malibu.
Leg 2 – Race 2 (2,3) – If Kelsa can upset in the opener, Martin Garcia and Jeff Mullins can sweep the early double with favored No. 3 Old Man Lake, who had a troubled trip while being well-beaten as the top choice in his last.
Double up with No. 2 Zoom Bag looking to match his debut win from 18 days ago when he rolled late at this abbreviated sprint distance to win by two lengths.
Leg 3 – Race 3 (4,5,6,7) – Half the field towers over the others on paper so we’ll use No. 4 Mr T Bird, No. 5 Money Talker, No. 6 Tiznow Or Then and No. 7 Unusual Beam.
Leg 4 – Race 4 (3,4,5,9) – Lots of droppers in the $50,000 maiden claiming heat and we’ll use a pair of them with No. 3 Dylan Donnelly and No. 4 Half Strike, along with a pair that dropped in for a tag in their last with No. 5 Bipartisan and No. 9 Stars and Moons.
Leg 5 – Race 5 (3,5,6,7,8) – Same five as the late Pick-4.
Recap – (4,5,6) w (2,3) w (4,5,6,7) w (3,4,5,9) w (3,5,6,7,8) – Total cost of ticket = $240
Sunday’s Result – (-$225)
Total for current Santa Anita meet – (+$761.05)
Total from 7/20/11 – 9/5/12 – (+$17,380.65)
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Good luck!
