Racing at Santa Anita with Marc Doche: Byrama can dethrone Broken Dreams in Maddy

by Marc on October 20, 2012

Byrama can continue her winning ways coming down the hill in today's $100,000 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes (G3).

The three-day stakes drought comes to an end as females roll 6 ½-furlongs in the $100,000 Senator Ken Maddy (Grade III) with the hope the moisture in the air stays at a minimum so the race remains on the downhill turf course.

Facing her elders for just the second time, Byrama is the 3-to-1 favorite having carved out her niche as a late-running sprinter. The 3-year-old British-bred daughter of Byron has won her last three starts with Rafael Bejarano in the irons and they exit a win in the Unzip Me Stakes three weeks ago that made her a perfect 2-for-2 over this layout.

Broken Dreams is the 7-to-2 second choice looking for a Maddy repeat after getting up by half a length at 5-to-1 in last year’s edition. With that race scheduled three weeks earlier, the 6-year-old daughter of Broken Vow was able to use it as a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, where she was soundly beaten and began her current streak of just one win from six starts.

Jumping into graded stakes competition and trying turf for the first time, Kindle has the potential to be lone speed as the 4-to-1 third choice. The 4-year-old Indian Charlie filly wired the Bangles and Beads at Fariplex Park in her last and speed rider Edwin Maldanado is back aboard.

After being well-backed at the windows in three tries coming down the hill earlier this year that resulted in a pair of wins and a runner-up finish, Teroda is forgotten on the morning line at 8-to-1 despite leading rider and turf terror Joe Talamo climbing aboard for the first time. The 4-year-old daughter of Limehouse has disappointed in her last two starts sprinting on the turf at Del Mar and Hollywood Park, but has trained like the filly we saw earlier this year ahead of her return to racing at Santa Anita.

We’re off to the races!

Pick 4 -

Leg 1 – Race 6 (1,5,10) – No. 1 Relentless Heat has become a model of consistency and loves coming down the hill, while No. 10 Candy’s Sunrise tries the layout for the first time but did finish as the runner-up in a turf sprint at Hollywood Park to start his career.

No. 5 Blue Jay Attack has come up short against tougher in his career coming down the hill and is worth inclusion with Bejarano rolling from off the pace.

Leg 2 – Race 7 (2,4,5,6,7,8,11) – Tough to narrow down these bottom-level claimers at the abbreviated sprint distance so we spread with No. 2 Hidden Blessing, No. 4 Lucky Fitz, No. 5 Southern Style, No. 6 Mack’s Gold Bullet, No. 7 American Wildcat, No. 8 Sea Rascal and No. 11 Dave’s Pacemaker.

Leg 3 – Race 8 (2,4,6,9) – With the belief that she’s not nearly the runner she was last year, we’ll play against No. 3 Broken Dreams and instead use No. 2 Teroda, No. 4 Ninth Infantry, No. 6 Byrama and No. 9 Kindle.

Leg 4 – Race 9 (1,2,4,7) – We’ll ignore favored No. 3 Givimaway, who’s run much better on synthetic, and use No. 1 Marv, No. 2 Eyesablazin, No. 4 Won Won Oh Five and No. 7 I Feel Free.

Recap – (1,5,10) w (2,4,5,6,7,8,11) w (2,4,6,9) w (1,2,4,7) – Total cost of ticket = $168

Yesterday’s Result – (+$427)

Total for current Santa Anita meet – (+$1,553.45)

Total from 12/26/10 – 9/5/12 – (-$2,966.60)

Pick 5 – 

Leg 1 – Race 1 (2,4) – Bobby B is double tough in her with the promising No. 2 Distracting and the more experienced No. 4 Pink Lollipops.

Leg 2 – Race 2 (3,4,5,7,9) – No. 5 Irish Presence ran evenly coming down the hill two weeks ago and can improve on the stretch out.

It’s always difficult with maiden juveniles going long and on turf to boot, so we’ll spread with No. 3 Wittgenstein, No. 4 Sarach, No. 7 Catrageous and No. 9 Villano.

Leg 3 – Race 3 (1,4,7) – Eight juveniles all making their debuts with Baffert sending a pair and No. 1 Really Mr Greely the likely bigger price. And, we know what that means. At this abbreviated 5 ½-furlong distance the inside post can be an advantage as long as he breaks cleanly and we’ll expect Martin Garcia to hustle him out of there and get the money.

We must also use Baffert’s other runner with No. 4 Z Big Apple and we’ll add the hyped No. 7 Russdiculous for Doug O’Neill.

Leg 4 – Race 4 (2,3,5,10,11) – A five-pack of females claimers coming down the hill with No. 2 Shezabigbroad, No. 3 Forty Paces, No. 5 Promiscuoussuances, No. 10 Lanida and No. 11 True Expectations.

Leg 5 – Race 5 (2,4,6) – No. 2 Tummel and No. 6 Idontrollonshabbos go first off the claim for trainers that have had ridiculous success with new acquisitions and No. 4 Corner Office drops in for a tag for the first time over the track where he’s notched his only win.

Recap – (2,4) w (3,4,5,7,9) w (1,4,7) w (2,3,5,10,11) w (2,4,6) – Total cost of ticket = $225

Yesterday’s Result – (-$162)

Total for current Santa Anita meet – (-$196.25)

Total from 7/20/11 – 9/5/12 – (+$17,380.65)

Best Bet of the Day – Can now be found in the free analysis section at www.theracingedition.com along with an early Pick-4 ticket and a consensus box for the entire card.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @mdoche for last minute changes caused by scratches and much more!

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For more Santa Anita action check out Jarrod Horak’s Pick 6 Blog.

Good luck!

{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }

Robert N. October 21, 2012 at 12:36 am

Marc: Congratulations for the selections you made on today’s card (Saturday). That was some great handicapping. Except the 8th race. Sounds like you talked yourself out of including Broken Dreams on your pick 4. Otherwise, great work. Hope you continue your present streak.

ps. Sea Rascal in the 7th–that was impressive.

Reply

Marc October 21, 2012 at 12:59 am

Thanks Robert! Definitely frustrating that I left off Broken Dreams, but sometimes just make the wrong decisions. Too bad Maldanado couldn’t have slowed it down just a bit on the front so Kindle could have held on. Was really disappointed with the way Teroda ran. Let’s hope the fields don’t get decimated too much tomorrow because of the rain.

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