After modest scores in both the Pick-4 and Pick-5 on Sunday, we look to continue to erase our losses over the final three weeks of the meet starting with a Thursday card where seven older females are featured sprinting six furlongs on the main track in a $62,500 allowance optional claiming event with a $60,000 purse.
Seven months after a disastrous trip to Saratoga where she was eased in the Test Stakes (Grade I), American Lady returns as the 6-to-5 favorite breaking from the inside post for Bob Baffert, who strikes with a remarkable 42% of his runners returning from at least a six-month break. The four-year-old daughter of Stormy Atlantic debuted with a win over this main track last April and followed that up with a win and a runner-up effort at Hollywood Park.
Mildly Offensive is the 5-to-2 second choice dropping out of stakes competition for the first time in six starts for Carla Gaines. A pair of wins to start her career over an off main track have been followed up by a quartet of defeats, but regular rider Rafael Bejarano could sit the best trip aboard the four-year-old daughter of Sharp Humor just off what should be a contested early pace.
That speed brigade on the front end will likely be lead by Dawnie Macho, who returns nine months after making her dirt debut in a runner-up effort in an ungraded stake at Stockton. John Sadler’s main rider climbs aboard for the first time and the presence of Joel Rosario makes this four-year-old daughter of Macho Uno enticing at 10-to-1.
The bottom-level claiming race that concludes the day has special meaning as it is named in honor of my son Kyle’s first birthday, which was yesterday, and my brother’s 28th birthday, which is today.
We’re off to the races!
Pick 4 -
Leg 1 – Race 5 (6,8,10) – A deserving favorite and likely winner with No. 8 Unbridled Ambition making her second start down the hill for Marty Jones, but if she breaks slowly again and gets into trouble, No. 6 Gypsy Friday and No. 10 Comin Easy are potential upsetters.
Leg 2 – Race 6 (1,2,3,6) – Along with the three runners discussed above, use Jim Rome’s No. 2 Miss Radiance, who gets plenty of speed to chase on the cut back.
Leg 3 – Race 7 (1,3,4,6) – More older females, this time going 1 1/8-miles on turf in a first-level allowance and we go with the four that are most likely to enjoy the additional ground with No. 1 Triveni, No. 3 Born Lucky, No. 4 Ricketyracketyruss and No. 6 Caelis.
Leg 4 – Race 8 (2,4,5,6,7) – 13 were entered but only eight remain in the Kyle J. Doche and Uncle Buddy purse where we spread with No. 2 It’s Superman, No. 4 Devils Afleet, No. 5 Man Chester Man, No. 6 Hammurabi and No. 7 Wild Revenge.
Recap – (6,8,10) w (1,2,3,6) w (1,3,4,6) w (2,4,5,6,7) – Total cost of ticket = $120
Sunday’s Result – (+$146.50)
Total for current Santa Anita winter/spring meet – (-$2,148)
Total from 12/26/10-12/18/11 – (+$3,512.05)
Pick 5 –
Leg 1 – Race 1 (ALL) – With the scratch of would be single No. 5 Shrug, we punch the all button with four remaining runners that all have more negatives than positives.
Leg 2 – Race 2 (5) – It’s cap and gown day at extremely short odds for No. 5 Warren’s Jazz Walk, who has finished as the runner-up in three of her last four.
Leg 3 – Race 3 (ALL) – Another pair of key contenders getting scratched muddles the picture, and while we lean towards No. 1 Hidinginplainisight and No. 7 Belle Passe, who both exit victories down the hill in quick times, we find reasons to like all the others as well.
Leg 4 – Race 4 (4,5,7) –No. 7 Splendid Fortune looms large getting off the rail for Baffert after getting beat by her stable mate in the debut, but No. 5 Propero has been training steadily for red-hot connections and No. 4 Instant Royalty can improve with the move to Garret Gomez.
Leg 5 – Race 5 (6,8,10) – Same trio as late Pick-4.
Recap – (ALL) w (5) w (ALL) w (4,5,7) w (6,8,10) – Total cost of ticket = $126
Sunday’s Result – (+$249.90)
Total for current Santa Anita winter/spring meet – (-$2,313.65)
Total from 7/20/10-12/18/11 (+$1,513.90)
Best Bet of the Day (ROI based off $2 WPS bet)
Race 7 – #1 Triveni (9/2 ML) – With the debut stateside under her belt when she made up some decent ground late, the extra distance and move to Rosario can result in a win in her second off the layoff, which is how she notched her only victory.
Sunday’s Result – Off the board with Plenny of Henny (-$6.00)
Total for current Santa Anita winter/spring meet – (-$124.80)
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For more Santa Anita action check out Jarrod Horak’s Pick 6 Blog.