Racing at Hollywood Park with Marc Doche: Final four days before shipping south

by Marc on July 12, 2012

In her last effort against Cal-breds, Saaneen missed by 3/4 of a length to La Nez in the Irish O'Brien coming down the hill at Santa Anita last March.

Closing week begins with a rather typical Thursday card that lacks quality and is highlighted by a pair of allowance events on turf with purses of $52,000 that are part of a challenging Pick-6 sequence where there is a carryover of $111,858.

The all-important fifth race on an eight-race card is at a mile on turf for first-level older males and Antidote is the 2-to-1 favorite despite having just one win from 15 career starts. The 5-year-old son of Tiznow has settled for a minor placing 11 times and has competed at a similar level to this since breaking his maiden at Del Mar last summer.

Robbie’s War returns off an eight-month layoff to make his 4-year-old debut as the 5-to-2 second choice. The son of War Chant showed some promise last year at Del Mar with a fourth-place finish behind Mr. Commons in the Oceanside and a runner-up effort to Ulitmate Eagle in an allowance, however his recent work tab doesn’t inspire.

The remaining entrants appear outclassed, starting with Arraignment, who dropped back to the level claimed ($25,000) to win his second start for Ron Ellis over this layout in his last and is the 3-to-1 third choice moving back into allowance company. Since shipping south from Canada last year, the 4-year-old son of Include had lost six straight before his late kick finally got up in time on June 17.

Cal-bred females in a first-level $25,000 allowance optional claimer sprint six furlongs on the turf in the seventh and Ms. G.I. Jane is the 5-to-2 favorite off a pair of solid efforts from off the pace against open claimers. The 6-year-old daughter of One Man Army is in for the tag having won this condition twice at Golden Gate in 2010 before eight straight defeats in stakes and second-level company.

Tasty Treat has found a home sprinting on turf in her last four starts, beating $32,000 claimers down the hill at Santa Anita in March before a trio of runner-up efforts in Cal-bred allowances. The 3-year-old daughter of Roar could flash to a clear early lead breaking from the inside post as the 3-to-1 second choice, but no works since her last race on June 15 is a concern.

After a solid 2011 campaign that saw her win twice and run second two more times from six starts, Saaneen has disappointed this year with three off the board finishes. The only other runner in for the tag, the 5-year-old daughter of Cee’s Tizzy chased much better when beaten just three lengths over this layout on May 24 and drops back into state-bred company for the first time in six starts.

We’re off to the races!

Pick 4 -

Leg 1 – Race 5 (1,3,4,7) – No. 1 Robbie’s War and No. 3 Antidote are the class of the field, but both come with question marks.

Ellis might have been able to improve No. 4 Arraignment enough to win at this level and No. 7 Hasty Trend moves way up in class after finding his best game when finally given the chance to route.

Leg 2 – Race 6 (2,4,5) – No. 2 Regulus tries is the only one trying something new over a route of ground and has shown speed sprinting. He might be able to lead this uninspiring group of maiden allowance runners all the way.

No. 4 Stars and Moons goes long for the second time and can improve and No. 5 Anabaa Premium is the remaining Paddy Gallagher after the scratch of No. 6 Money Talker.

Leg 3 – Race 7 (1,4,6) – Along with No. 1 Tasty Treat and No. 6 Saaneen discussed above, take a flier with Rafael Bejarano aboard No. 4 Anna You’re Up, who appears to be improved off a solid work pattern.

Leg 4 – Race 8 (1,3) – No. 3 Miceli has a huge advantage as the only runner with turf sprint experience and he wasn’t disgraced in any way in a third-place finish behind a couple nice horses. He’s also the only to exit an open maiden allowance for a trainer that excels with babies.

No. 1 Dr. Spin gets a hustling rider and if he can break clean can be dangerous. He has been outworking his stable mate No. 4 Shining Copper, but this isn’t Neil Drysdale’s game.

Recap – (1,3,4,7) w (2,4,5) w (1,4,6) w (1,3) – Total cost of ticket = $36

Saturday’s Result – (-$120)

Total for currentHollywoodParkspring/summer meet – (-$1,870.55)

Total from 12/26/10 – 4/22/12 – (+$588.70)

Pick 5 –

Leg 1 – Race 1 (2,6) – No. 2 Red Dwarf is sharp on the class raise and ran well in his only try over Cushion Track, while No. 6 Titian drops a tick to the bottom off some respectable efforts.

No. 5 Miles Heir prefers dirt and appears to be going the wrong way.

Leg 2 – Race 2 (1,2,3,6) – Some slow babies sprint five furlongs and we’ll give the nod to the debuting No. 6 Kevin’s Kool Kat with Bejarano taking the call. His sire Decarchy strikes with 18% of juveniles making their first start.

Spread with No. 1 Ciao Valentina, No. 2 Stormy Logic and No. 3 Ruler of the Tribe.

Leg 3 – Race 3 (2,4,7) – No. 4 The Unusual One towers on paper, but bounces back to Abrams with no works after moving to Baltas to train on synthetic.

No. 2 K Js Maddog is set for further improvement with some time in his new barn and No. 7 All de Victors is on the improve with turf route experience.

Leg 4 – Race 4 (1,3,5) – Bejarano is interesting on a first-timer again here with No. 3 Bold Agressor for a barn he’s been riding lights out for.

Both No. 1 Three Buttons Down and No. 5 Et Tu Walker will get bet and should knock hard in this spot.

Leg 5 – Race 5 (1,3,4,7) – Same four as the late Pick-4.

Recap – (2,6) w (1,2,3,6) w (2,4,7) w (1,3,5) w (1,3,4,7) – Total cost of ticket = $144

Saturday’s Result – (-$82.55)

Total for current Hollywood Park spring/summer meet – (-$458.15)

Total from 7/20/11 – 4/22/12 – (+$2,150.80)

Best Bet of the Day – Can now be found in the free analysis section at www.theracingedition.com along with an early Pick-4 ticket and a consensus box for the entire card.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @mdoche for last minute changes caused by scratches and much more!

Check out my blogs for America’s Best Racing on www.followhorseracing.com!

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To view my horse racing channel on YouTube click here!

For more Hollywood Park action check out Jarrod Horak’s Pick 6 Blog.

Good luck!

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