Racing at Hollywood Park with Marc Doche: Carrie Rose vulnerable if carried wide

by Marc on May 25, 2012

The reggae theme continues after the races with Soja in concert.

Ahead of three great days of holiday racing, we’ll be generous and describe Friday night’s card as ho-hum. Along with six claiming races and a Cal-bred allowance for maidens, the feature sees seven Cal-bred fillies and mares at a mile on turf in an allowance $25,000 optional claimer with a $54,000 purse.

The lukewarm 3-to-1 morning line choice breaks from the disadvantageous outside post, with Carrie Rose likely to be hung wide into the clubhouse turn with other speed breaking to her inside. The 5-year-old daughter of Old Topper is one of two entered by Mike Mitchell and retains the services of Joel Rosario, who was aboard for the first time in her last resulting in a runner-up finish over seven furlongs on the main track.

The “other” Mitchell is 5-to-1 shot Donner Wasser, who moves back to Rafael Bejarano in her second start for her new barn. Bejarano was aboard when the 5-year-old daughter of Thunder Gulch broke her maiden two summers ago at Del Mar and can place her tactically just off the speed.

The four career wins for 8-to-1 shot Ruffled Feathers are two more than any of the other runners, and the 6-year-old daughter of Include can save ground all the way around after breaking from the inside before unleashing her late kick.

One of two 3-year-olds in the field, Unusual Hottie is the 7-to-2 second choice off a pair of runner-up efforts in similar heats after a win against starter allowance company. The daughter of Unusual Heat can also track just off the leaders after just getting run down to miss by half a length in her last.

We’re off to the races!

Pick 4 -

Leg 1 – Race 5 (1,5,7,8) – Four-deep with female turf sprinters using No. 1 Ms. G.I. -Jane, No. 5 Church Avenue, No. 7 After Later and No. 8 Mona Storm.

Leg 2 – Race 6 (1,4,8) – Mitchell looks tough heer with the debuting No. 8 Sudden Sunday, who draws outside the speed off a steady work tab.

No. 1 Natalie’s Academy and No. 4 Allswellonceagain should hook up early and one of them might be able to carry her speed tonight.

Leg 3 – Race 7 (1,4,6) – No. 1 Ruffled Feathers is actually the top pick with the though she can save ground and improve in her second off the layoff. She’s run against much tougher in her career and should offer value.

No. 4 Donner Wasser and No. 6 Unusual Hottie are attractive sitting just off the speed.

Leg 4 – Race 8 (2,6,8,9,10) – Bottom-level maiden-claimers to close the night and we spread with No. 2 Three Little Birds, No. 6 Nobyjo, No. 8 Navy Seal Six, No. 9 Outta Splash and No. 10 Hidden Quest.

Recap – (1,5,7,8) w (1,4,8) w (1,4,6) w (2,6,8,9,10) – Total cost of ticket = $90

Yesterday’s Result – (-$96)

Total for current Hollywood Park spring/summer meet – (-$901.40)

Total from 12/26/10 – 4/22/12 – (+$588.70)

Pick 5 –

Leg 1 – Race 1 (1,6) – Two-deep in the opener with No. 1 Attack the Jack, who could run them of their feet breaking from the inside, and No. 6 I Sense Your Luck, whose recent efforts make her much the best.

Leg 2 – Race 2 (1,2,3,4,5) – Rarely do we use all runners except one, but that’s the case here with No. 6 Solider Betty having no shot.

No. 3 Miss Oops and No. 5 Lil Miss Macky will be over bet off their most recent efforts, but the other three runners can compete should the top two regress at all.

Leg 3 – Race 3 (1,2,3,4) – The logical runners breaking from the inside four stalls with No. 1 Night Badger, No. 2 D’Obsession, No. 3 Mel’s Game and No. 4 Sizzlin’ Joe.

Leg 4 – Race 4 (2,3,4) – No. 4 Palio Prince drops back into a claimer in the second off the claim by Bill Spawr and gets Joel Rosario for the first time in a race void of much early zip.

Hard-knocking sprinters No. 2 Close to the Edge and No. 3 Luckarack can track from mid-pack and prove tough through the lane.

Leg 5 – Race 5 (1,5) – Things should set up nicely for No. 1 Ms. G.I. Jane to run them down late, while No. 5 Church Avenue’s consistency must be respected even off the long layoff.

Recap – (1,6) w (1,2,3,4,5) w (1,2,3,4) w (2,3,4) w (1,5) – Total cost of ticket = $120

Yesterday’s Result – (-$144)

Total for current Hollywood Park spring/summer meet – (+$137.60)

Total from 7/20/11 – 4/22/12 – (+$2,150.80)

Best Bet of the Day – Can now be found in the free analysis section at www.theracingedition.com along with an early Pick-4 ticket and a consensus box for the entire card.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @mdoche for last minute changes caused by scratches and much more!

Check out my blogs for America’s Best Racing on www.followhorseracing.com!

Listen to my weekly HD Los Angeles sports podcast!

To view my horse racing channel on YouTube click here!

For more Hollywood Park action check out Jarrod Horak’s Pick 6 Blog.

Good luck!

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

The Real Cheeseman May 26, 2012 at 12:49 am

Perhaps you might want to consider changing your site name to “pick5blog.com”? Big payoffs of late. Nice work Mark

Reply

The Real Cheeseman May 26, 2012 at 12:50 am

Sorry… Marc – trying to pay respect and I spell your name wrong. Just plan bad karma ;-)

Reply

Marc May 26, 2012 at 12:52 am

Thanks Brian! Guess it’s easier to pick 5 in a row than 4 in a row sometimes.

Reply

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