Racing at Hollywood Park with Marc Doche: 3-year-old fillies in spotlight on Kentucky Derby Eve
- Updated: May 4, 2012
With her ability to get a route of ground always in question, it’s fitting that Reneesgotzip is back to sprinting in a second-level allowance as the 6-to-5 favorite at Hollywood Park on the day 3-year-old fillies compete in the $1 million Kentucky Oaks (Grade I) over 1 1/8-miles at Churchill Downs.
In a pair of runner-up finishes going two turns in Grade I events at Santa Anita, Reneesgotzip saw her Beyer speed figures drop by about ten points. The daughter of City Zip had previously earned a 98 Beyer while breaking her maiden sprinting on the main track at Hollywood Park and followed that up by winning the Santa Ynez (Grade II) at Santa Anita by nearly eight lengths with a 101 Beyer.
Eden’s Moon debuted in Reneesgotzip’s wake before turning the tables in the Las Virgenes (Grade I) and is one of two runners Bob Baffert sends in the Kentucky Oaks. A disappointing third-place finish in the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade I) leaves Eden’s Moon a 12-to-1 outsider today, while stable mate Jemima’s Pearl is listed at 10-to-1 off a third-place finish in the Fantasy Stakes (Grade II) at Oaklawn Park.
Baffert has another bullet that stays home trying to defeat Reneesgotzip, with 2-to-1 second choice Glamorista making just her fourth career starts at the age of five. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song has posted a pair of wire-to-wire wins by a combined 13 ½-lengths, which includes her debut over Cushion Track last July.
If the top two choices hook up on the front end, things could set up for 3-to-1 third choice Spectacular Sky over a surface that has played kindly to runners coming from off the pace through the early stages of the meet. Despite being winless in five tries over this main track, the 4-year-old daughter of Sky Mesa missed by just a head in a first-level allowance here in December and was the runner-up in the Las Flores (Grade III) in her last start at Santa Anita on March 11.
Along with the Oaks, Churchill Downs hosts four additional graded stakes races today ahead of tomorrow’s loaded card, and I’ll be back on the local radio waves discussing the Kentucky Derby and more from 9-10 a.m. on ESPN 830 with Bob Ike on Saturday’s edition of Thoroughbred L.A.
We’re off to the races!
Pick 4 -
Leg 1 – Race 5 (1,4,6,8) – No. 9 Forest Souvenir looked at the end of his rope last time so we’ll play against him and use No. 1 Tribal Dreams, No. 4 Pop the Cork, No. 6 Sunny Superstition and No. 8 Wise Guise.
Leg 2 – Race 6 (3,4,5,7) – No. 7 Boat Trip must overcome the disadvantageous outside spot in this turf sprint, but loads of speed on the front end will help him out.
Also use the turf win-machine from Chile No. 3 Sabor Amargo, No. 4 Sammy’s a Runnin’, and No. 5 Aliza’s Dream.
Leg 3 – Race 7 (1,3,4) – Use the three mentioned above with No. 1 Reneesgotzip, No. 3 Spectacular Sky and No. 4 Glamorista.
Leg 4 – Race 8 (3,7,8,9,10) – No. 3 Aqua Revelation draws better than her biggest challengers and should be able to cut the clubhouse corner on the lead.
However, Bob Baffert is down to 6% with turf runners so we’ll spread with No. 7 My Dividend, No. 8 Money Talker, No. 9 Funny How and No. 10 Currahee.
Recap – (1,4,6,8) w (3,4,5,7) w (1,3,4) w (3,7,8,9,10) – Total cost of ticket = $120
Yesterday’s Result – (-$144)
Total for currentHollywoodParkspring/summer meet – (-$384.45)
Total from 12/26/10-4/22/12 – (+$588.70)
Pick 5 –
Leg 1 – Race 1 (2,4,6) – We’ll look to begin the day with a pair coming from off the pace with No. 4 Huntington Harbour or No. 6 Three Cuties, along with speedster No. 2 Tiz the Route that was always cut out to be a nice one.
Leg 2 – Race 2 (1,4,6) – No. 1 Indy Beauty can control the pace in her first on a synthetic surface, while the consistent No. 4 Miss Oops can sit the perfect tracking trip.
No. 6 Tribal Beauty won her last over this surface.
Leg 3 – Race 3 (4,7) – No. 4 Lovely Sophia moves back to her preferred surface and should get an honest pace to close into and we’ll take a flier on No. 7 Kentucky Tale for a trainer that hasn’t won a race since 2005.
Leg 4 – Race 4 (2,6,8) – Another Baffert on the turf with No. 2 Causeithertz, who was cut out to be a monster, but is still looking to break his maiden at the age of five.
One last chance for No. 8 Rock Off and No. 6 God Of War catches a weak field for hisU.S.debut exiting a Group 1 inBrazil.
Leg 5 – Race 5 (1,4,6,8) – Same four as the late Pick-4.
Recap – (2,4,6) w (1,4,6) w (4,7) w (2,6,8) w (1,4,6,8) – Total cost of ticket = $108
Yesterday’s Result – (-$120)
Total for currentHollywoodParkspring/summer meet – (-$292.25)
Total from 7/20/10-4/22/12 (+$2,150.80)
Best Bet of the Day – Can now be found in the free analysis section at www.theracingedition.com along with an early Pick-4 ticket and a consensus box for the entire card.
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